Top 20 — today's highs
| sym | move | theme | fam |
y.RSI | y.MA20 |
|---|
| ITB | +2.7% | homebuild/housing | OCTANE | 42 | -4.7% |
| IEZ | +2.4% | oil/energy | OCTANE | 47 | +1.3% |
| OIH | +2.3% | oil/energy | OCTANE | 48 | +1.9% |
| XLRE | +2.2% | unclassified | INTL | 54 | +0.5% |
| SRVR | +2.2% | homebuild/housing | INTL | 37 | -1.1% |
| CALF | +2.0% | unclassified | QUALITY | 53 | -0.1% |
| DFJ | +2.0% | japan | INTL | 46 | -1.4% |
| COWZ | +1.9% | unclassified | QUALITY | 48 | -0.2% |
| BTAL | +1.8% | unclassified | COMMOD | 56 | +2.8% |
| EUAD | +1.7% | intl-dev | OCTANE | 52 | -0.1% |
| RSPD | +1.7% | unclassified | QUALITY | 39 | -3.1% |
| XHB | +1.6% | unclassified | OCTANE | 46 | -3.0% |
| PSP | +1.5% | financials | INTL | 51 | +0.8% |
| SCHD | +1.5% | unclassified | INTL | 58 | +1.2% |
| EWD | +1.4% | unclassified | INTL | 47 | -0.6% |
| VIGI | +1.3% | unclassified | QUALITY | 47 | -0.6% |
| DVY | +1.3% | unclassified | INTL | 58 | +0.9% |
| SPHD | +1.3% | unclassified | LOWVOL | 56 | +0.6% |
| PHO | +1.2% | unclassified | QUALITY | 47 | -1.7% |
| HDV | +1.2% | unclassified | LOWVOL | 62 | +2.0% |
Bottom 20 — today's lows
| sym | move | theme | fam |
y.RSI | y.MA20 |
|---|
| EWY | -6.3% | korea | OCTANE | 46 | -3.7% |
| FLKR | -5.9% | korea | OCTANE | 46 | -3.7% |
| URNJ | -4.7% | nuclear/uranium | OCTANE | 47 | +0.9% |
| EMEQ | -3.5% | emerging-mkt | OCTANE | 45 | -4.6% |
| URNM | -3.2% | nuclear/uranium | OCTANE | 45 | -0.7% |
| URA | -3.0% | nuclear/uranium | OCTANE | 43 | -1.6% |
| NLR | -3.0% | nuclear/uranium | OCTANE | 45 | -0.5% |
| REMX | -2.9% | lithium/battery | OCTANE | 27 | -12.6% |
| ARKK | -2.6% | tech/growth | OCTANE | 40 | -6.4% |
| FRDM | -2.5% | unclassified | OCTANE | 44 | -3.3% |
| ARKQ | -2.4% | tech/growth | OCTANE | 38 | -5.2% |
| MTUM | -2.4% | unclassified | INTL | 49 | -1.5% |
| EMXC | -2.4% | china | INTL | 45 | -2.7% |
| VOLT | -2.3% | unclassified | OCTANE | 49 | -0.9% |
| PSCE | -2.0% | unclassified | OCTANE | 57 | +4.4% |
| USO | -2.0% | oil/energy | OCTANE | 72 | +20.9% |
| EEM | -2.0% | emerging-mkt | INTL | 45 | -2.0% |
| FFOG | -2.0% | unclassified | OCTANE | 43 | -3.0% |
| CTA | -1.9% | managed-futures | COMMOD | 67 | +7.9% |
| KDEF | -1.9% | korea | OCTANE | 47 | +1.7% |
Could we have seen it? — what separated winners from losers (at yesterday's close)
| feature | winners (top20) | losers (bot20) | read |
|---|
| RSI(14) | 48 | 45 |
winners higher |
| dist from MA20 | -0.1% | -1.8% |
winners stronger |
| TOP20 internal corr (60d) | +0.33 |
broad |
Read: winners were STRONG (trend/continuation). Lead theme up: homebuild/housing (2), oil/energy (2);
lead theme down: nuclear/uranium (4), korea (3).
Why we missed the movers — every top mover vs the morning board, gate by gate
| sym | move | verdict | tell | why we had it / missed it |
|---|
| ITB | +2.7% | BOARD | swing | swing setup+turn (failed eligibility - veto-queue tier) |
| IEZ | +2.4% | BLOCKED | none | climb gates: upweek126 57% vs >=60%, vol20 26% vs <=18%; relentless trend (L3, 88%+ of yr up) - excluded by design (H-25: length inverts) NEAR-MISS → upweek126 57% vs >=60% |
| OIH | +2.3% | BLOCKED | none | climb gates: upweek126 58% vs >=60%, vol20 25% vs <=18%; relentless trend (L3, 88%+ of yr up) - excluded by design (H-25: length inverts) NEAR-MISS → upweek126 58% vs >=60% |
| XLRE | +2.2% | CAUGHT | climb-pool S1/L2 | in the climb-pool (S1/L2) - young-strength lane |
| SRVR | +2.1% | BLOCKED | none | climb gates: persist126 48% vs >=60%, upweek126 49% vs >=60% |
| CALF | +2.0% | BLOCKED | none | climb gates: upweek126 58% vs >=60%; relentless trend (L3, 88%+ of yr up) - excluded by design (H-25: length inverts) NEAR-MISS → upweek126 58% vs >=60% |
| DFJ | +2.0% | BLOCKED | none | climb gates: upweek126 54% vs >=60%; relentless trend (L3, 88%+ of yr up) - excluded by design (H-25: length inverts) NEAR-MISS → upweek126 54% vs >=60% |
| COWZ | +1.9% | BLOCKED | none | climb gates: upweek126 59% vs >=60%; relentless trend (L3, 88%+ of yr up) - excluded by design (H-25: length inverts) NEAR-MISS → upweek126 59% vs >=60% |
| BTAL | +1.8% | BLOCKED | none | climb gates: persist126 36% vs >=60%, upweek126 41% vs >=60%, vol20 25% vs <=18% |
| EUAD | +1.7% | BLOCKED | none | climb gates: persist126 48% vs >=60%, upweek126 46% vs >=60%, vol20 28% vs <=18% |
Rolling (5 days, 50 movers): visible on the morning board 18%. Gates costing the most winners: upweek126 ×36, vol20 ×36, persist126 ×29, relentless ×14. Near-misses filed: 16 (the parameter-review queue).
CAUGHT a system lane had it · BOARD visible judgment tier (amber/on-deck/swing) · PASSED = eligible but never dipped (correct abstention — we buy dips) · BLOCKED a gate said no — the named gate(s) and values are the exact reason.
Factors present that day — the news tape (which factor themes were lit up, and did they move?)
| news theme | maps to | news vol (z vs 90d) | 6d build-up | foreshadow (10y) | tone | moved? |
|---|
| gold | gold | +2.2σ 🔥 | | mixed | +3.2 | |
| silver | silver | +1.5σ 🔥 | | mixed | +1.1 | |
| ai | tech/growth | +1.1σ 🔥 | | mixed | -0.0 | LOST today |
| natgas | oil/energy | -1.0σ | | LEADS +5d | +0.4 | WON today |
| china_econ | china | +0.8σ | | LEADS +5d | +1.9 | LOST today |
| uranium | nuclear/uranium | +0.8σ | | reactionary | +1.2 | LOST today |
| oil | oil/energy | -0.6σ | | mixed | -2.1 | WON today |
| wheat | agriculture | +0.6σ | | reactionary | -3.9 | |
| biotech | biotech/health | -0.5σ | | reactionary | +0.0 | |
| semiconductors | semis | +0.3σ | | | +1.2 | |
| rates | rates/duration | -0.3σ | | reactionary | -0.9 | |
| defense | defense | +0.0σ | | mixed | -1.0 | |
| copper | industrial-metal | +0.0σ | | mixed | +0.6 | |
News volume z-scored vs its own 90-day baseline; 🔥 = ≥1σ hot. 6d build-up shows the prior days' news_z (left→right, today at right) — your foreshadow view. Foreshadow (10y) is the backtest verdict: LEADS news precedes the ETF move (act on it) · reactionary news trails price (ignore) · mixed. news thru 2026-07-17 — stale, refresh h6_gdelt.py
Top news cycle — what dominated the day (tracked & untracked stories)
as of 2026-07-24 · 250 articles
earnings 46call 34earnings call 33stock 33highlights 26call highlights 26strong 13lottery 10july 10trump 9pick 9results 9buy 9police 8highlights strong 8growth 8numbers 7man 7cash 7inc 6winning 6winning numbers 6
Untracked top stories (no theme yet — candidate new themes to watch): earnings, call, earnings call, stock, highlights, call highlights, strong, lottery, july, trump, pick, results
Rising across days (building story): none flagged yet
Headline sample:- Freeze - casting - Wikipedia
- Mullen Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Comstock Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Thermo Fisher ( TMO ) Climbs 8 . 7 % on Solid Earnings , Price Target Upgrades
- Hochschild Mining Stays on Track After Solid Q2 , but Costs Run Above Guidance
ETF relationships — complements & substitutes (news foreshadows the chain)
Price co-moves same-day (no tradeable price lead exists), but a driver's news spike foreshadows its complement basket over ~10 days — the edge is in the news channel.
| driver | | complement | fwd-10d excess | hit | n |
|---|
| defense | news → | oil | +1.1% | 61% | 304 |
| datacenter | news → | copper | +0.6% | 57% | 425 |
| defense | news → | gold | +0.5% | 61% | 303 |
| china | news → | copper | +0.5% | 59% | 371 |
Armed now (driver ran, complement lagging — catch-up candidates): defense→gold, defense→oil
Substitute hedges (move opposite — real diversification): oil↔rates -0.24, natgas↔rates -0.21, defense↔rates -0.15, copper↔rates -0.12
Tell durability — do our morning tells actually pay? (10y baseline, forward 5d, excess vs no-tell)
| tell | 5d avg | excess vs base | hit | t | verdict | 10y n | live n | live 5d |
|---|
| DIP* | +0.6% | +0.4% | 61% | 13.35 | EDGE | 3,039 | 167 | -1.2% |
| amber | +0.5% | +0.3% | 60% | 10.28 | EDGE | 6,513 | 232 | +0.2% |
| climb-pool | +0.2% | +0.1% | 58% | 55.47 | THIN | 281,331 | 8282 | -0.2% |
| on-deck | +0.1% | -0.1% | 64% | 22.16 | NEG | 109,602 | 7318 | +0.1% |
| swing | +0.0% | -0.1% | 53% | 1.62 | NEG | 26,066 | 1695 | +0.1% |
| none | +0.2% | +0.0% | 54% | 40.14 | THIN | 732,681 | 41105 | +0.3% |
Excess = forward return above the none (no-tell) cohort — the edge of the
tell itself, not of being in the market. EDGE real ·
THIN marginal · NEG loses vs baseline.
Baseline built 2026-07-07 over 2016-07-07–2026-07-07,
1,162,722 name-days. Live columns fill in as the rolling scorecard accrues.
Today's buy ideas — graded
| ticker | action | day | edge | verdict |
|---|
| XLP | BUY | +1.1% | climb-pool | would have paid |
| ALLW | BUY | +0.1% | climb-pool | would have paid |
| MOAT | BUY | +0.7% | climb-pool | would have paid |
The engine's calls — graded
| call date | sym | status | ret | note |
|---|
| 2026-07-24 | COPX | PENDING | - | entry = next open (not traded yet) |
Graded to the engine's own receipt: entry at next open, cancelled if it gapped >1%, judged over its 10-session edge horizon. Same scoreboard as the briefing's calls.
Your positions
book empty - no managed positions