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ETF Quick-Trade · End of Day

Tue 22 Sep 2026

SPY -0.02% regime ON vol 0.81 CALM breadth 63% dispersion 1.15%

Top 20 — today's highs

sym	move	theme	fam	y.RSI	y.MA20
SHOP	+7.1%	unclassified	OCTANE	51	-1.0%
MU	+5.0%	unclassified	OCTANE	61	+8.4%
SILJ	+4.4%	silver	OCTANE	48	-4.1%
COPJ	+4.3%	industrial-metal	OCTANE	51	-2.0%
GDXJ	+4.3%	gold	OCTANE	50	-3.5%
SIL	+3.9%	silver	OCTANE	50	-3.8%
SLVP	+3.8%	silver	OCTANE	49	-3.9%
COPP	+3.6%	industrial-metal	OCTANE	50	-2.3%
GDX	+3.6%	gold	OCTANE	50	-3.9%
GDMN	+3.4%	unclassified	OCTANE	48	-5.3%
RING	+3.3%	gold	OCTANE	50	-3.8%
SGDM	+3.2%	gold	OCTANE	51	-3.0%
ITB	+3.2%	homebuild/housing	OCTANE	38	-3.7%
SLVR	+3.2%	unclassified	OCTANE	51	-2.6%
SGDJ	+3.2%	gold	OCTANE	51	-2.6%
LRCX	+2.9%	unclassified	OCTANE	51	+1.7%
COPX	+2.8%	industrial-metal	OCTANE	48	-3.5%
HD	+2.7%	unclassified	INTL	28	-5.8%
XME	+2.7%	unclassified	OCTANE	41	-5.8%
ICOP	+2.7%	industrial-metal	OCTANE	48	-3.5%

Bottom 20 — today's lows

sym	move	theme	fam	y.RSI	y.MA20
SCHW	-6.1%	unclassified	OCTANE	49	-1.2%
ADBE	-4.5%	unclassified	OCTANE	43	-6.8%
WFC	-3.9%	unclassified	OCTANE	47	-1.1%
JPM	-3.4%	unclassified	INTL	48	-0.7%
BAC	-3.0%	unclassified	OCTANE	32	-5.1%
MS	-2.9%	unclassified	OCTANE	42	-2.6%
USO	-2.8%	oil/energy	OCTANE	56	+2.7%
BOAT	-2.5%	unclassified	INTL	77	+4.9%
BLK	-2.2%	unclassified	OCTANE	49	-1.4%
V	-2.1%	unclassified	INTL	49	-1.3%
MA	-2.1%	unclassified	INTL	46	-2.1%
XLF	-2.0%	unclassified	QUALITY	40	-2.1%
C	-1.9%	unclassified	OCTANE	50	+0.2%
COP	-1.8%	unclassified	OCTANE	43	-4.8%
BA	-1.7%	unclassified	OCTANE	38	-3.0%
XOP	-1.7%	oil/energy	OCTANE	46	-2.8%
NFLX	-1.6%	unclassified	OCTANE	41	-6.7%
EIDO	-1.6%	indonesia	OCTANE	41	-3.4%
RSPG	-1.5%	unclassified	OCTANE	47	-2.1%
FCG	-1.5%	oil/energy	OCTANE	41	-4.7%

Could we have seen it? — what separated winners from losers (at yesterday's close)

feature	winners (top20)	losers (bot20)	read
RSI(14)	50	46	winners higher
dist from MA20	-3.5%	-2.1%	winners more stretched down
TOP20 internal corr (60d)	+0.62		broad

Read: winners were STRONG (trend/continuation). Lead theme up: gold (5), industrial-metal (4); lead theme down: oil/energy (3), indonesia (1).

Why we missed the movers — every top mover vs the morning board, and what would have caught them

sym	move	verdict	tell	the numbers said	the world said (news / sentiment / tape)	to catch it
SHOP	+7.1%	BLOCKED	none	climb gates: persist126 52% vs >=60%, upweek126 53% vs >=60%, vol20 56% vs <=18%; MA200 flat/falling - trend not established NEAR-MISS → persist126 52% vs >=60%	unclassified news channel quiet on this theme	POOL-PARAM grinder gates persist126 60%->52%, upweek126 60%->53%, vol20 18%->56% (puts it on-deck, not a same-day fire)
MU	+5.0%	BLOCKED	none	climb gates: vol20 53% vs <=18%; relentless trend (L3, 88%+ of yr up) - excluded by design (H-25: length inverts)	unclassified news channel quiet on this theme	POOL-PARAM grinder gates vol20 18%->53% (puts it on-deck, not a same-day fire)
SILJ	+4.4%	BLOCKED	none	climb gates: persist126 43% vs >=60%, upweek126 52% vs >=60%, vol20 45% vs <=18%; bounce gates: bounce_rate 57%, only 7 oversold events/yr NEAR-MISS → upweek126 52% vs >=60%	silver news silver +1.4z HOT, tone +2.9; theme lagged yesterday's tape (oil/energy (6), silver (2)); complement lane china news -> silver (validated +0.22%)	FIRE-PARAM grinder gates persist126 60%->43%, upweek126 60%->52%, vol20 18%->45% NEWS-LEAD silver news was +1.4z at the prior close - the news channel flagged this theme while the price gates said no
COPJ	+4.3%	BLOCKED	none	climb gates: persist126 53% vs >=60%, upweek126 55% vs >=60%, vol20 44% vs <=18%; relentless trend (L3, 88%+ of yr up) - excluded by design (H-25: length inverts); bounce gates: bounce_rate 50%, only 8 oversold events/yr NEAR-MISS → persist126 53% vs >=60%	industrial-metal news copper +0.0z quiet, tone +0.6	FIRE-PARAM grinder gates persist126 60%->53%, upweek126 60%->55%, vol20 18%->44%
GDXJ	+4.3%	CAUGHT	climb-pool S1/L2	in the climb-pool (S1/L2) - young-strength lane	gold news gold -1.9z quiet, tone +4.0; outlet stance mixed (+0.00); complement lane defense news -> gold (validated +0.40%)	— COMPLEMENT the defense-news lane points here and is validated
SIL	+3.9%	CAUGHT	climb-pool S1/L2	in the climb-pool (S1/L2) - young-strength lane	silver news silver +1.4z HOT, tone +2.9; theme lagged yesterday's tape (oil/energy (6), silver (2)); complement lane china news -> silver (validated +0.22%)	— NEWS-LEAD silver news was +1.4z at the prior close - the news channel flagged this theme while the price gates said no
SLVP	+3.8%	CAUGHT	climb-pool S1/L2	in the climb-pool (S1/L2) - young-strength lane	silver news silver +1.4z HOT, tone +2.9; theme lagged yesterday's tape (oil/energy (6), silver (2)); complement lane china news -> silver (validated +0.22%)	— NEWS-LEAD silver news was +1.4z at the prior close - the news channel flagged this theme while the price gates said no
COPP	+3.6%	BLOCKED	none	climb gates: persist126 57% vs >=60%, upweek126 52% vs >=60%, vol20 42% vs <=18%; relentless trend (L3, 88%+ of yr up) - excluded by design (H-25: length inverts); bounce gates: only 3 oversold events/yr NEAR-MISS → persist126 57% vs >=60%	industrial-metal news copper +0.0z quiet, tone +0.6	FIRE-PARAM grinder gates persist126 60%->57%, upweek126 60%->52%, vol20 18%->42%
GDX	+3.6%	CAUGHT	climb-pool S1/L2	in the climb-pool (S1/L2) - young-strength lane	gold news gold -1.9z quiet, tone +4.0; outlet stance mixed (+0.00); complement lane defense news -> gold (validated +0.40%)	— COMPLEMENT the defense-news lane points here and is validated
GDMN	+3.4%	BLOCKED	none	climb gates: persist126 35% vs >=60%, upweek126 49% vs >=60%, vol20 54% vs <=18%	unclassified news channel quiet on this theme	FIRE-PARAM grinder gates persist126 60%->35%, upweek126 60%->49%, vol20 18%->54%

Rolling (42 days, 420 movers): visible on the morning board 25%. Gates costing the most winners: vol20 ×296, upweek126 ×283, persist126 ×234, relentless ×125. Near-misses filed: 153 (the parameter-review queue).

Would the fixes have PAID? (tested 2026-09-22 over the full cache — only the NEW DIP* fires each fix creates)

candidate fix	new fires	fwd 5d	hit	excess vs all-days	verdict
upweek126 min 60% -> 55%	206	-0.10%	46%	-0.42%	DILUTES
persist126 min 60% -> 55%	8	+0.54%	62%	+0.22%	THIN
vol ceiling 18% -> 25%	477	+0.03%	43%	-0.29%	DILUTES
no turn trigger (enter on setup alone)	861	+0.55%	56%	+0.23%	PAYS

Current DIP*: n360 at +0.03% fwd5 · all-days baseline +0.32%. PAYS the extra fires beat baseline · DILUTES catching those movers would cost edge.

CAUGHT a system lane had it · BOARD visible judgment tier (amber/on-deck/swing) · PASSED = eligible but never dipped (correct abstention — we buy dips) · BLOCKED a gate said no — the named gate(s) and values are the exact reason. To-catch-it: FIRE-PARAM a param change fires it that morning · POOL-PARAM puts it on a visible pool · BY-DESIGN catching it means undoing a researched exclusion · UNCATCHABLE nothing at the prior close pointed here (news channel only).

Factors present that day — the news tape (which factor themes were lit up, and did they move?)

news theme	maps to	news vol (z vs 90d)	foreshadow (10y)	tone	moved?
gold	gold	-1.9σ	mixed	+4.0	WON today
wheat	agriculture	+1.6σ 🔥	reactionary	-4.5
silver	silver	+1.4σ 🔥	mixed	+2.9	WON today
biotech	biotech/health	+1.3σ 🔥	reactionary	-2.6
natgas	oil/energy	-1.0σ	LEADS +5d	+0.4	LOST today
oil	oil/energy	+0.5σ	mixed	-2.2	LOST today
china_econ	china	-0.5σ	LEADS +5d	-0.2
rates	rates/duration	-0.5σ	reactionary	-1.8
defense	defense	-0.5σ	mixed	-1.5
semiconductors	semis	+0.2σ		+1.6
uranium	nuclear/uranium	-0.1σ	reactionary	-1.5
ai	tech/growth	-0.1σ	mixed	-1.0
copper	industrial-metal	+0.0σ	mixed	+0.6	WON today

News volume z-scored vs its own 90-day baseline; 🔥 = ≥1σ hot. 6d build-up shows the prior days' news_z (left→right, today at right) — your foreshadow view. Foreshadow (10y) is the backtest verdict: LEADS news precedes the ETF move (act on it) · reactionary news trails price (ignore) · mixed. news thru 2026-09-21 — stale, refresh h6_gdelt.py

Top news cycle — what dominated the day (tracked & untracked stories)

as of 2026-09-22 · 250 articles

stock 28trump 21 ▲stocks 9united 9burnham 8kingdom 7market 7united kingdom 7bbc 7australia 7street 6ahead 6review 6ban 6death 6wall 5wall street 5buy 5energy 5going 5world 5fund 5

Untracked top stories (no theme yet — candidate new themes to watch): stock, trump, stocks, united, burnham, kingdom, market, united kingdom, bbc, australia, street, ahead
Rising across days (building story): trump

Headline sample:

亚运男子4×100混接中国四连冠 _ 百度搜索
These 3 Stocks Under $20 Have Wall Street Looking Past the Share Price
Could $5 , 000 Invested in SpaceX Help You Retire a Millionaire ?
Berkshire Hathaway Favorite Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) Stock Looks Like a Genius Buy Now
Is a Recession Coming in 2026 ? History Has Good and Bad News for Investors .

Complements & substitutes — what moves under TODAY's news cycle (ticker level)

wheat news hot (+1.6z) · 429 historical events

complements (rise)	10d excess	hit	now
AMD	+1.3%	62%	faded
SHOP	+1.2%	61%	FLIPPED
SILJ	+0.9%	53%	holding
URNM	+0.8%	57%	FLIPPED
META	+0.8%	63%	FLIPPED

substitutes (fall)	10d excess	hit	now
MU	-0.7%	55%	holding
CTA	-0.7%	52%	holding
WFC	-0.6%	52%	holding
SNOW	-0.6%	50%	FLIPPED
PALL	-0.4%	53%	holding

silver news hot (+1.4z) · 536 historical events

complements (rise)	10d excess	hit	now
AMD	+1.2%	61%	FLIPPED
EUAD	+1.1%	61%	holding
VOLT	+1.1%	67%	holding
TSLA	+0.9%	56%	holding
URNM	+0.9%	57%	holding

substitutes (fall)	10d excess	hit	now
PFIX	-1.3%	42%	holding
SLVR	-1.1%	56%	holding
UBER	-1.1%	46%	holding
PLTR	-1.0%	53%	faded
ORCL	-0.8%	48%	holding

biotech news hot (+1.3z) · 356 historical events

complements (rise)	10d excess	hit	now
BTAL	+0.5%	55%	holding
ITB	+0.4%	62%	FLIPPED
MRK	+0.4%	61%	holding
UGA	+0.4%	62%	FLIPPED
ABBV	+0.4%	60%	holding

substitutes (fall)	10d excess	hit	now
PLTR	-2.9%	45%	holding
TSLA	-2.2%	44%	faded
URNM	-1.9%	47%	holding
SNOW	-1.8%	48%	holding
BA	-1.6%	48%	holding

Measured on individual tradeable ETFs (not baskets), forward 10d after each news spike, excess over each name's own unconditional mean. now = the same relationship on the recent window only: holding, faded, or FLIPPED. 41 relationships have flipped since 2024-09-18 — rebuilt nightly, tracked in rel_cycle_log.csv.

ETF relationships — complements & substitutes (news foreshadows the chain)

Price co-moves same-day (no tradeable price lead exists), but a driver's news spike foreshadows its complement basket over ~10 days — the edge is in the news channel.

driver		complement	fwd-10d excess	hit	n
defense	news →	oil	+1.1%	61%	308
datacenter	news →	copper	+0.6%	58%	443
china	news →	copper	+0.5%	59%	379
defense	news →	gold	+0.4%	61%	308
china	news →	silver	+0.2%	51%	379

Armed now (driver ran, complement lagging — catch-up candidates): none armed
Substitute hedges (move opposite — real diversification): oil↔rates -0.24, natgas↔rates -0.22, defense↔rates -0.14, copper↔rates -0.11

Tell durability — do our morning tells actually pay? (10y baseline, forward 5d, excess vs no-tell)

tell	5d avg	excess vs base	hit	t	verdict	10y n	live n	live 5d
DIP*	+0.6%	+0.4%	61%	13.56	EDGE	3,166	135	-1.3%
amber	+0.4%	+0.2%	59%	10.2	EDGE	8,004	341	+1.0%
climb-pool	+0.3%	+0.1%	57%	55.44	THIN	317,118	12522	+0.1%
on-deck	+0.1%	-0.1%	64%	22.0	NEG	113,096	5007	-0.0%
swing	+0.1%	-0.1%	53%	3.52	NEG	31,699	2112	+0.3%
none	+0.2%	+0.0%	54%	50.46	THIN	855,283	43528	+0.1%

Excess = forward return above the none (no-tell) cohort — the edge of the tell itself, not of being in the market. EDGE real · THIN marginal · NEG loses vs baseline. Baseline built 2026-09-22 over 2016-07-07–2026-09-22, 1,332,151 name-days. Live columns fill in as the rolling scorecard accrues.

Today's buy ideas — graded

no buy ideas logged today

The engine's calls — graded

call date	sym	status	ret	note
2026-09-08	NO TRADE — best score 0.225% < 0.300% bar (EUAD)
2026-09-10	NO TRADE — best score 0.224% < 0.300% bar (EUAD)
2026-09-11	NO TRADE — best score 0.224% < 0.300% bar (EUAD)
2026-09-14	NO TRADE — best score 0.225% < 0.300% bar (AAAU)
2026-09-17	NO TRADE — best score 0.225% < 0.300% bar (EPHE)
2026-09-18	NO TRADE — best score 0.230% < 0.300% bar (GDMN)
2026-09-21	NO TRADE — best score 0.232% < 0.300% bar (EPHE)

Graded to the engine's own receipt: entry at next open, cancelled if it gapped >1%, judged over its 10-session edge horizon. Same scoreboard as the briefing's calls.

Prediction — graded (the whole-universe morning forecast vs the close)

session	pred med	actual	band	breadth	dir
2026-09-02	+0.0%	+0.2%	in	53→81%	hit
2026-09-03	+0.0%	+0.4%	OUT	53→84%	hit
2026-09-04	+0.0%	-0.1%	in	53→34%	miss
2026-09-09	+0.1%	-0.2%	in	53→24%	miss
2026-09-11	+0.0%	+0.2%	in	53→58%	hit
2026-09-14	+0.0%	-0.2%	in	52→25%	miss
2026-09-15	+0.0%	-0.2%	in	52→26%	miss
2026-09-18	+0.0%	-0.3%	in	52→26%	miss
2026-09-21	+0.0%	+0.4%	in	52→77%	hit
2026-09-22	+0.0%	+0.1%	in	52→63%	hit

Rolling (last 20): median MAE 0.231% vs zero-martingale 0.223% — no edge over the zero martingale (as validated - daily universe returns are near-random). 80% band coverage 95% (target 80% — is the stated humility honest?); breadth direction 40%. The forecast is a calibrated band, not a point bet.

Morning theories — graded

target	dir	actual	verdict	basis
CRM	UP	-1.3%	WRONG	clv-lane
GDXJ	UP	+4.3%	HIT	clv-lane
PSLV	UP	+1.6%	HIT	clv-lane
SGDJ	UP	+3.2%	HIT	clv-lane
SLVP	UP	+3.8%	HIT	clv-lane
GDX	UP	+3.6%	HIT	clv-lane
SIL	UP	+3.9%	HIT	clv-lane
SILJ	UP	+4.4%	HIT	clv-lane
STIP	UP	-0.0%	FLAT	trial:t-dipb
STPZ	UP	-0.0%	FLAT	trial:t-dipb
theme:oil/energy	UP	-1.0%	WRONG	social-buildup
theme:silver	UP	+2.9%	HIT	social-tier
theme:agriculture	UP	-0.2%	WRONG	social-tier

Scoreboard by basis (hits/resolved): analog 0/2, armed-complement 0/3, clv-lane 75/140, continuation 15/30, factor-spike 1/3, gate-near-miss 0/1, news-buildup 9/15, reversion 2/8, social-buildup 18/32, social-tier 25/50, trial:t-dipb 1/7, trial:t-knife 3/16, trial:t-voices 13/24, voice-leader 0/1 — the morning routine leans into what predicts.

Your positions

book empty - no managed positions

ETF Quick-Trade · generated by dashboard.py from wl_2y cache + backtest baseline · hindsight/diligence tool, not trade advice · 492 tradeable CORE names in today's universe